In the competitive arena of international education, data-driven insights are essential for understanding how policy, market sentiment, and agent behaviour shape student mobility. The recently released education agent performance data from Immigration New Zealand for 2025, when compared to 2024 benchmarks, reveals a sector undergoing a profound transformation.
The overarching theme of the last 12 months can be summarised as "The Pivot to Quality." Across several high-volume markets, we observed a deliberate contraction in application numbers coupled with a marked increase in visa approval rates. This article examines the country-level trends drawn from Immigration New Zealand's publicly available agent performance data for calendar years 2024 and 2025.
1. The Quality over Quantity Pivot: India and Nepal
The most striking trends appear in the South Asian markets. Both India and Nepal experienced significant reductions in the volume of student visa applications where an agent was declared.
India: Market volume decreased by approximately 39% (from 8,592 to 5,235 student visas). However, this was accompanied by a substantial 13-percentage-point increase in the approval rate, rising from 50% to 63%.
Nepal: Following a similar trajectory, volume dropped by nearly 32% (from 2,661 to 1,816 student visas), while the approval rate surged from 36% to 55% — a 19-percentage-point improvement.
These shifts suggest a maturing market where agents and institutions are prioritising "high-intent" students who meet stricter criteria, likely in response to evolving immigration settings and a focus on sustainable growth. The dramatic improvement in Nepal's approval rate — the largest absolute gain in the dataset — is particularly noteworthy and suggests a significant recalibration of recruitment practices in that market.
2. Emerging Resilience: Brazil and Vietnam
While some traditional markets cooled, Brazil and Vietnam emerged as clear growth leaders.
Brazil: This market saw an extraordinary 106% increase in volume (from 203 to 419 student visas), with the approval rate also improving from 81% to 88%. This indicates a strengthening appetite for New Zealand education in South America and effective quality control despite the rapid expansion.
Vietnam: Volume grew by 16% (from 399 to 463 student visas), supported by a healthy approval rate increase from 81.5% to 86%. Vietnam's consistent performance across both years positions it as one of the more reliable and growing source markets.
3. Efficiency and Excellence: The Southeast Asian and East Asian Markets
The data for China, Thailand, and the Philippines highlights a shift toward near-perfect alignment between applicant profiles and visa requirements.
China: Maintains its position as a cornerstone market with high stability. Volume grew slightly by 2.4% (from 1,498 to 1,534 student visas), while its already impressive approval rate climbed from 96% to 99%. China's near-perfect approval rate reflects mature recruitment channels and well-established institutional pathways.
Thailand: Despite a significant 42.5% decrease in volume (from 919 to 528 student visas), Thailand's approval rate reached a staggering 98% in 2025, up from 89%. This suggests that the market is currently dominated by highly qualified applicants and extremely efficient processing, though the sharp volume decline warrants monitoring.
Philippines: Showcased a remarkable improvement in quality control. While volume decreased by 16% (from 731 to 613 student visas), the approval rate jumped from 70% to 95% — a 25-percentage-point improvement representing the largest single-year improvement in approval reliability among all nine surveyed countries.
4. Steady Performers: Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka demonstrated a measured contraction of 22% in volume (from 1,576 to 1,228 student visas), accompanied by a modest 5-percentage-point improvement in approval rates, rising from 80% to 85%. Sri Lanka's trajectory mirrors the broader South Asian trend of reduced volume paired with improved quality outcomes, though at a less pronounced scale than India or Nepal.
5. Stagnation and Challenges: Colombia
Colombia represents a unique case in the dataset, being the only market to see a decrease in volume (-26.6%, from 259 to 190 student visas) without a corresponding improvement in the approval rate, which remained static at 64%. This suggests that recruitment in this region may be facing specific headwinds that distinguish it from the broader global trends of improved quality outcomes. Colombia's flat approval rate, while not declining, stands in contrast to the universal improvement seen elsewhere and may indicate structural challenges in applicant preparation or market alignment.
Comparative Table: Market Performance (2024 vs 2025)
| Country | 2024 Volume | 2025 Volume | Vol. Change (%) | 2024 Approval | 2025 Approval | AR Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 203 | 419 | +106.4% | 81% | 88% | +7.0% |
| China | 1,498 | 1,534 | +2.4% | 96% | 99% | +3.0% |
| Colombia | 259 | 190 | -26.6% | 64% | 64% | 0.0% |
| India | 8,592 | 5,235 | -39.1% | 50% | 63% | +13.0% |
| Nepal | 2,661 | 1,816 | -31.7% | 36% | 55% | +19.0% |
| Philippines | 731 | 613 | -16.1% | 70% | 95% | +25.0% |
| Sri Lanka | 1,576 | 1,228 | -22.1% | 80% | 85% | +5.0% |
| Thailand | 919 | 528 | -42.5% | 89% | 98% | +9.0% |
| Vietnam | 399 | 463 | +16.0% | 81.5% | 86% | +4.5% |
Key Takeaways
What does this mean for prospective students?
The data paints a clear picture: New Zealand's student visa system is becoming more selective, but also more predictable. For students who meet the genuine student criteria — with clear study plans, adequate funding, and legitimate educational intent — the chances of approval have never been higher in most markets.
What does this mean for the international education sector?
For stakeholders in the international education sector, these trends highlight several strategic imperatives:
- Geographical diversification is paying dividends — markets like Brazil and Vietnam offer strong growth potential.
- Quality-driven recruitment strategies are being rewarded with dramatically improved approval rates.
- Volume is not a proxy for success — markets that have contracted in volume have generally seen the most significant improvements in outcomes.
- The Philippines' transformation from a 70% to 95% approval rate demonstrates that market-wide quality improvements are achievable within a single year.
The bigger picture
The 2024–2025 data paints a picture of a sector that is becoming more discerning. The widespread increase in approval rates, even amidst volume declines in major markets, points toward a more efficient and higher-quality student visa system. This "quality over quantity" narrative is consistent across nearly every market in the dataset, with the sole exception of Colombia.
For students considering New Zealand as a study destination, and for institutions seeking to attract international talent, understanding these market dynamics is essential for informed decision-making.
Data Source: Immigration New Zealand — Education Agent Performance Data (2024–2025). Published by Immigration New Zealand in February 2025 (2024 data) and March 2026 (2025 data). Data covers offshore student visa applications where an agent was declared on the application form and a declaration form was provided.